Roy Morgan Poll Shows ALP Maintaining Lead Over One Nation and Coalition

A nationwide survey conducted by Roy Morgan between September 14 and September 27, 2026, shows the Australian Labor Party (ALP) holding an election-winning lead on primary and two-party preferred measures across Australia. The poll, which surveyed a representative cross-section of 2,569 electors, placed the ALP's primary vote at 26%, narrowly leading One Nation at 25.5%.

According to the polling data, the Liberal-National Coalition recorded a primary vote of 22.5% (20% Liberal, 2.5% Nationals), followed by the Greens at 14.5% and Independent/Other candidates at 11%. Additionally, 7% of respondents were undecided.

Roy Morgan reported that if a federal election were held immediately, the ALP would secure a majority against either One Nation or the Coalition. When preferences from other parties are distributed between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP leads with 53.5% compared to One Nation's 46.5%. On a traditional two-party preferred basis against the Coalition, the ALP leads 52.5% to 47.5% based on stated respondent preferences, and 52% to 48% when based on 2025 federal election preference distributions.

State-by-state breakdowns indicate varying party strongholds. One Nation registered its highest primary support in Queensland at 32.5% and its lowest in South Australia at 18.5%. The ALP performed strongest in New South Wales at 28.5% and lowest in Queensland at 20.5%. The Coalition polled best in South Australia and Victoria, both at 26.5%, while the Greens recorded their highest support in Victoria at 16.5%.

The survey also assessed broader public sentiment, finding that 63.5% of surveyed electors believe Australia is "going in the wrong direction," compared to 21.5% who believe it is "going in the right direction." This sentiment was highest in Western Australia at 70.5% and lowest in South Australia at 56.5%.

Roy Morgan noted that the survey coincided with major political events, including immigration policy announcements from both Labor and One Nation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's address at the UN General Assembly in New York, and the announcement of a government taskforce investigating an AI-related security incident involving Australia's Medicare statistics portal.

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