Roy Morgan Poll Shows ALP Maintaining Lead Over One Nation and Coalition

A nationwide Roy Morgan survey conducted between September 14 and September 27, 2026, shows the Australian Labor Party (ALP) holding an election-winning lead with 26% of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of One Nation at 25.5%.

According to the polling organization, the Liberal-National Coalition recorded a primary vote of 22.5% (20% Liberal and 2.5% Nationals), followed by the Greens at 14.5% and Independent/Other parties at 11%. Roy Morgan stated that 7% of respondents could not say whom they would vote for. The poll surveyed a representative cross-section of 2,569 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan estimated that if an election were held immediately, the ALP would secure a majority against either One Nation or the Coalition. In a simulated contest between the ALP and One Nation, with preferences distributed from other parties, the ALP led 53.5% to 46.5%. In a traditional two-party preferred contest against the Coalition, the ALP held a 52.5% to 47.5% advantage based on voter-stated preferences, or 52% to 48% when based on 2025 election preference flows.

State-level breakdowns from the survey showed One Nation recording its strongest primary support in Queensland at 32.5% and its lowest in South Australia at 18.5%. The ALP polled highest in New South Wales at 28.5% and lowest in Queensland at 20.5%. The Coalition's highest support was recorded in South Australia and Victoria, both at 26.5%, while the Greens recorded their highest support in Victoria at 16.5% and lowest in New South Wales at 12%.

The survey also assessed general public sentiment, finding that 63.5% of respondents believed Australia is "going in the wrong direction," compared to 21.5% who believed it is "going in the right direction." Concern was highest in Western Australia at 70.5% and lowest in South Australia at 56.5%.

Roy Morgan noted that the polling period coincided with immigration policy announcements by both Labor and One Nation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's address to the UN General Assembly in New York, and the announcement of a government taskforce investigating an AI hacking incident affecting Australia's Medicare statistics portal.

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