Global Food Commodity Prices Rose in September Amid Weather and Shipping Disruptions, FAO Reports

ROME — Global food commodity prices increased in September 2026, driven by transportation disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and higher quotations across crop-based commodity groups, according to data released on Friday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, marking a 1.5 percent increase from August and a 5.8 percent rise compared to the same period last year. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero stated that disruptions in shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, combined with climate shocks, are putting upward pressure on energy, transport, and agricultural commodities, which could impact consumer food prices in import-dependent countries.

The increase was led by the FAO Cereal Price Index, which climbed 5.1 percent from August and 17.2 percent year-on-year. Global wheat prices rose 6.3 percent due to logistical constraints in the Black Sea and dry weather in North America, while maize prices increased 5.6 percent on lower yield expectations in the United States, reduced export availability in Brazil, and shipping challenges. The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 6.1 percent over the month due to expectations of tighter supplies in the 2026/27 season, influenced by weather challenges in Thailand, India, and Brazil, alongside reduced sugar beet planting in the European Union. Palm oil prices pushed the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index up by 0.9 percent.

Conversely, some commodity groups recorded slight decreases. The FAO Meat Price Index fell 1.1 percent due to abundant export supplies of pig and poultry meat, despite higher export prices for Brazilian beef. The FAO Dairy Price Index dipped by 0.1 percent, as lower cheese prices offset gains in milk powder quotations.

In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, the FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 to 2,979 million tonnes, representing a 2.1 percent decrease from 2025. While this would still be the second-largest harvest on record, reduced coarse grain yields in the United States and the European Union, alongside lower rice production in India, outweighed an upward revision in global wheat production supported by favorable weather in Australia. Global trade in cereals is also forecast to decline by 3.5 percent to 505.8 million tonnes.

Additionally, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) noted in its monthly monitor that a strengthening El Niño is contributing to production uncertainty, particularly for Asian rice crops, alongside elevated freight rates and logistical challenges.

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