Roy Morgan Survey Shows ALP Leading in Polling as Consumer Confidence Dips and Mortgage Stress Remains Elevated

Market research firm Roy Morgan released its weekly update on September 29, 2026, outlining recent Australian political polling alongside economic indicators for consumer confidence and mortgage stress.

According to the survey of 2,569 electors over a two-week period, the Albanese Labor government held a primary vote of 26%, followed by One Nation at 25.5%, the Coalition at 22.5% (comprising 20% Liberal and 2.5% Nationals), the Greens at 14.5%, and Independents and other parties at 11%. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor led the Coalition 52.5% to 47.5%, and led One Nation 53.5% to 46.5%.

State-by-state data indicated One Nation polled highest in Queensland with 32.5%, while Labor recorded its strongest support in New South Wales at 28.5%. The Coalition achieved its highest results in Victoria and South Australia at 26.5%, and the Greens polled highest in Victoria at 16.5%.

In economic metrics, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index decreased by 1.5 points in a week to 70.5, ahead of a cash rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Inflation expectations dropped 0.4% to 5.7%, representing the expected annual inflation over the next two years. Mortgage stress for the three months to August stood at 32.3%, slightly down by 0.2% from July but up 8.4% since January, placing an estimated 1.7 million mortgage holders at risk.

Roy Morgan's Annual Agribusiness Research reported that support for One Nation among surveyed Australian farmers rose to 45.5%, compared to 10.5% a year earlier. The research also noted that agribusiness confidence fell to its lowest point in at least fifteen years during the June quarter of 2026, remaining in negative territory since mid-2022. Inflation and costs, particularly for petrol and fertiliser, were cited by 48% of surveyed farmers as their primary challenge, surpassing government policy.

Separately, Roy Morgan announced the results of its New Zealand Customer Satisfaction Awards across 25 categories. Hyundai received the 'Best of the Best' award with an average customer satisfaction score of 92.5%, alongside category recognitions for Apple iPhone (91.8%), Emirates (91.4%), Hell Pizza (87.4%), and Mitre 10 (86.8%).

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