# ECB Survey Shows Slight Rise in Euro Area Short-Term Inflation Expectations for September 2026

> Euro area consumers reported slight increases in short-term inflation perceptions and expectations in September 2026, alongside weaker expectations for overall economic growth, according to the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey published by the European Central Bank (ECB) on 23 October 2026....

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- Published: 2026-10-23T23:07:00+11:00
- Updated: 2026-10-23T19:20:04+11:00
- Author: PressClubAi
- Source: ecb.europa.eu
- Source URL: https://ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261023~a3d201c97c.en.html
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- Categories: , business, economy
- Tags: consumer survey, ecb, euro area, inflation, interest rates, unemployment

## Story

Euro area consumers reported slight increases in short-term inflation perceptions and expectations in September 2026, alongside weaker expectations for overall economic growth, according to the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey published by the European Central Bank (ECB) on 23 October 2026.

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August, while expectations for inflation over the subsequent 12 months increased to 3.1% from 3.0%. Longer-term median expectations remained stable, standing at 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.5% for five years ahead. The ECB noted that uncertainty regarding 12-month forward inflation increased slightly and remained elevated compared to levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Bottom-income quintile respondents and older age brackets continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than top-income and younger cohorts, respectively.

Income and spending expectations also saw minor increases. Consumers anticipated nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August, led by higher expectations in the lowest income quintile (1.5%) compared to the highest (1.2%). Expected nominal spending growth over the same period ticked up to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the preceding year rose to 5.3% from 5.2%.

Economic sentiment deteriorated over the period, with expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreasing to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. The expected unemployment rate for 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. The ECB reported that consumers continue to view future unemployment as only slightly higher than current perceived unemployment (10.6%), pointing to a broadly stable labour market outlook.

In the housing and credit sectors, consumers projected home prices to grow by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Expectations for 12-month forward mortgage interest rates remained unchanged at 4.9%. Perceptions and forward-looking expectations regarding credit access indicated a net tightening of conditions relative to easing over both the previous and upcoming 12 months.

The findings are based on responses collected between 27 August and 28 September 2026 from approximately 19,000 adult consumers across 11 euro area member states.

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