Experts Warn of Crop and Forage Shortfalls Across West Africa and the Sahel

Regional and national experts meeting at the PREGEC regional consultation in September 2026 warned that the 2026–2027 agropastoral season in West Africa and the Sahel faces significant risks of production shortfalls, worsening an existing food security crisis. The alert follows earlier projections from the March 2026 Cadre Harmonisé estimating that nearly 57 million people would face acute food and nutrition insecurity during the 2026 lean season.

The current agropastoral campaign has experienced prolonged dry spells and high rainfall variability. According to the alert, yield deficits are expected in Chad, Mauritania, Niger, and Cabo Verde.

Forage resources are also deteriorating after two exceptional years. Areas experiencing notable declines include eastern Niger—specifically Diffa, Zinder, and Agadez—as well as the Lake Chad Basin and the Chadian regions of Kanem, Batha, Wadi Fira, Lac, and Ennedi. In Mauritania, persistent vegetation deficits have been reported in the two Hodh regions.

The decline in forage has triggered early and large-scale transhumance, which is placing increased pressure on remaining pastoral resources and heightening the risk of tensions between pastoralist and agropastoral communities. The loss of livestock presents severe consequences for pastoral families by lowering household incomes, reducing access to milk, and undermining resilience against future shocks.

Despite the growing risks, humanitarian response plans in the region face severe funding shortages in 2026. Only 15 percent of required funding has been met in Niger, 20 percent in Burkina Faso, and 23 percent in Mali. Action Against Hunger has urged governments, donors, and regional institutions to mobilize resources immediately to enable early action before pastures are fully depleted and malnutrition worsens.

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