Flooding Threatens to Displace Over 870,000 People in Somalia, IOM Warns

Nearly 874,000 people in Somalia are at risk of being displaced from their homes over the next three months due to heavy rainfall and rising river levels, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned on 21 October 2026.

According to joint projections by the IOM and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), approximately 874,319 individuals could face displacement between October and December. Flooding is anticipated to account for 92 per cent of this movement as the country enters a rainy season forecast to produce above-normal precipitation, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions.

The agency reported that early indicators of flooding are already appearing. The Jubba River is approaching flood levels in Dollow, the Shabelle River is nearing the top of its banks in Jowhar, and heavy rains in Baidoa have damaged homes and displaced residents from multiple neighbourhoods. Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo are among the areas at highest risk, with roughly 229,000 and 82,000 people facing potential displacement, respectively.

IOM noted that families residing in overcrowded displacement sites face elevated vulnerabilities, including inadequate access to clean water and sanitation, which increases the risk of disease outbreaks. The organization also warned that floodwaters could ruin crops, disrupt livelihoods, contaminate water supplies, and sever access to healthcare and essential services.

To address the threat, IOM stated it is coordinating with Somali authorities and local communities on early warning systems, evacuation routes, and emergency assistance preparation. However, the organization emphasized that operations face severe financial constraints, having secured only about 14.4 per cent of the USD 16.62 million required to support more than 517,000 people in flood-prone areas.

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