UNEP Report Urges Urgent Emissions Reductions as Global Temperatures Set to Exceed 1.5°C

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on Wednesday, warning that global temperatures are set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and urging nations to implement deep, immediate emissions cuts to bring temperatures back down by the end of the century.

According to the report, a "lowest possible" overshoot scenario would limit peak global warming to between 1.7°C and 1.8°C around mid-century. To achieve this trajectory, global emissions must decrease compared to 2025 levels by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035, and 69 percent by 2040.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that exceeding the target does not mean defeat, emphasizing that the overshoot can remain limited in size and duration with appropriate action. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of warming and extra year above the 1.5°C threshold amplifies climate impacts and risks, citing recent occurrences of deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires.

The report projects that current policies would lead to warming of 2.8°C within this century, with further increases thereafter. Even if all submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement are fully delivered and maintained, warming is projected to reach 2.6°C. UNEP noted that these estimates reflect a worsening outlook compared to the previous year, attributing the shift to the United States' withdrawal from the climate deal and revised historical emissions data, alongside minimal impact from newly submitted NDCs.

To reverse temperature increases, UNEP highlighted the need to accelerate goals agreed upon during the 2021–2023 Global Stocktake. These priorities include tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, halting deforestation, cutting non-CO2 emissions, and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

To align with the lowest overshoot scenario, the report states that the share of coal, oil, and gas in the total energy supply would need to decrease relative to 2025 levels by at least 55 percent, 15 percent, and 5 percent respectively by 2035. By 2040, these required reductions would increase to at least 75 percent for coal, 30 percent for oil, and 35 percent for gas. Further discussions on these targets are expected to take place during the second Global Stocktake at the UN COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye.

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